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RevPAR will reach its cyclical low poinrt in the third quarter of closing the escalating trend of declines in RevPAR that began in the third quarterof 2008, according to . "The good news is that the bottom of the currenyt cycle forthe U.S. hotel industry is soon to said R. Mark president of PKF Hospitality Research, in a news “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakesgt year on record for the domestiflodging industry, and 2010 is goingy to be disappointing as well. If you are wonderingh when we'll start to see actual growth in RevPAR, then you'l have to wait until 2011.
if you want to know when the operating environmengt is going to get a littleless painful, that'e happening right now." Lodging forecasts presentedf in the June 2009 edition of Hotek Horizons are based on Smitg Travel Research hotel performance data througnh March 2009 and Moody's Economy.com's May 2009 economic forecast for the Given the correlation betwee n employment and lodging demand, the new expectation is for RevPAR to declines 17.5 percent in 2009, followed by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-year quarterly declined in the demandfor U.S.
lodging accommodationsw started in the first quarter of 2008 and peakerd at negative 8 percent in the first quarteeof 2009. The June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizond forecasts demand to decline each of the remainintg quartersof 2009, but at a diminishiny pace. The projected quarterly declines in demand for the remainder of 2009 averagejust 4.7 Beyond 2009, the forecasyt calls for average annual increases in demanc of 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percent long-ter average. But given the forecast 17.
5 percent decline in RevPARf for allof 2009, PKF-HR is projecting total hotel revenues to decrease 16 percent for the In 2011 and 2012, PKF-HR forecasts that RevPAR will increases on an average annual basis of 9.2 while profits will rise at a 17.8 percent
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